I know I haven't posted anything since before the Super Bowl a few weeks ago, but this post wouldn't have been nearly as informed back then. In the last two weeks, there have been various Guild award shows (Producers, Writers, etc.), the BAFTA's, the Grammys (that doesn't matter as much, but it happened, so count it), and I've seen the final Best Picture films that were still on my list (Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild). But now that all the minor league award shows are over, it's time to finally get excited for The Granddaddy of Them All, the Academy Awards! And what better way to celebrate than by predicting the winners?
Before we go on, I must warn you that what you will read below is purely speculation. If you are responsible for winning an Oscar pool this weekend (as I hopefully will be doing), feel free to throw all of the thanks my way. But if you lose, this was not my fault. The Oscars are like what happens after the drop in Harlem Shake videos...the only thing you can predict is that there will be craziness. Even the greatest industry experts are often wrong. With that said, in each category below I will give my pick for who I think WILL win, while also giving a mark for who I think SHOULD win. Got that? Just in case, I'll warn you one more time, but with more printed loudness: DON'T READ ANYTHING INTO THE "SHOULD" WIN CATEGORY EXCEPT FOR THAT I ENJOYED IT! Also, keep in mind that in some of these categories I haven't seen all the nominees (but honestly, how many people in the world have seen all the nominees?), which may create some bias. For your sake, I have broken these into categories of minor awards, technical awards, and the big awards. So without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2013 Academy Awards.
X = Will Win
O = Should Win
Minor Awards
Best Short Film (Live Action)
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
(X) Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry
Did I say in some categories I haven't seen all the nominees? I guess I kind of lied. In some categories, like this one, I haven't seen any of the nominees, so it's best to get this one out of the way early. Anyway, Curfew, the story of a down-on-his-luck guy who is called to look after his 9-year old niece for a few hours (riveting stuff here, I know), is going off at 2/1 odds at goldderby.com. I'm not even gonna pick a Should Win because I feel bad.
Best Short Film (Animated)
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head over Heels
(X)(O) Paperman
The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare
Alright I've seen films in this category! Only two, but still. Look, I think Paperman is a lock to win this one. It screened in theaters before fellow nominee Wreck-It Ralph, it stole the hearts of audiences everywhere, and even became a viral Facebook hit on Valentine's Day. This film is two scoops of wonderful, and I fully expect it to take home the Oscar on Sunday.
Best Documentary (Short Subject)
Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
(X) Open Heart
Redemption
Look, I promise I'm going to seem like an expert in the upcoming categories. These first four are pretty rough (I partially blame Netflix, who in past years has been great about putting Oscar-nominated documentaries up before awards are presented). I'm just giving you the odds again on this one: Open Heart, which follows a group of Rwandan children who set out to receive heart transplants that may save their lives, is going off at 21/10 odds. If you don't like that, Inocente, which highlights a homeless immigrant trying to become an artist, is going off at 7/2. Seriously, I apologize.
Best Documentary (Feature)
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
(X) Searching for Sugar Man
This documentary has had all of the buzz building around it in the past few weeks. It follows two South Africans who set out to find what happened to their favorite rock idol, the American musician Rodriguez. I wish I could say I'd seen it, as I've been trying to find a place showing it for weeks (again, this one is on Netflix...you really let me down, bro). But take it from me. This one's a winner.
Best Foreign Language Film
(X)(O) Amour
War Witch
No
A Royal Affair
Kon-Tiki
You don't have to be a genius to figure out what film will win this award this year. One foreign language film is nominated for Best Picture, the others are not. I may have only seen one, but I'm gonna guess it deserves it. Enough said.
Best Animated Feature Film
Brave
(X) Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
(O) Wreck-It Ralph
I really want this award to go to Wreck-It Ralph. No other movie created so much nostalgia for me this year, even with the terrible theater conditions I saw it in (the sound on the left half of the theater cut out every ten minutes for the entire movie). But that was just me and other videogame-loving kids. Real adults, such as critics, loved Frankenweenie, and Tim Burton has never won an Oscar. Though this isn't the film he deserves it for, I think this is his year.
Technical Awards
Best Achievement in Visual Effects (Finally! I've seen these movies!)
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
(X)(O) Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman
The movie is about a boy and a tiger in a boat in the middle of the ocean. Let me repeat that: the movie, which is up for Best Picture, spends the majority of its time dealing with a boy interacting with a tiger...on a boat...in the ocean. This movie could not have been made with out special effects. Sure, you could maybe say that about Avengers or The Hobbit (don't say it about Prometheus...Alien was far superior and far less confusing with little computer animation), but neither of those stories had anywhere near the emotional weight of Life of Pi. Put this one in the awards bag and move on.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
(X) Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
(O) Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
This may be one of the best years to tell the difference between this category and the next category, Sound Mixing. This category deals with the ability to create sounds, such as the gurgling noise of a man being water boarded or the PING of a bullet ricocheting off metal. Believe it or not, those things actually don't happen in a studio because they would likely result in some form of horrible injury. The weird thing about the Oscars, though, is that the people voting aren't required to know that difference. Here, I believe Skyfall should win for its ability to believably edit scenes involving bulldozers, trains, helicopters, machine gun cars, and burning buildings. But Argo will likely take home the prize because Argo will likely be the movie of the night. People vote for winners, even when they don't necessarily deserve it. Argo is not not deserving...there's just better picks here.
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Argo
(X)(O) Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
How is sound mixing different from sound editing you may ask? Well, I'll tell you. Sound mixing is the ability to take all of the recorded sounds, put them into a mixing board, and find the correct balance between music, dialogue, and audio effects. And did any movie do that better this year than Les Miserables? Tom Hooper's choice to have the actors sing live was a widely publicized choice, and I would bet that it was in the back of every voters' mind when they casted their ballots. I think that voters will forgive Hooper for subjecting us to Russell Crowe's singing voice and give Les Mis a much deserved Oscar here.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
Before My Time (Chasing Ice)
Suddenly (Les Miserables)
Pi's Lullaby (Life of Pi)
(X)(O) Skyfall (duh)
Everybody Needs a Best Friend (Ted)
Look, I don't want to perpetuate the Adele-deserves-every-award-ever! stereotype any more than the next guy, but there's nothing else here that can take it down. "Everybody Needs a Best Friend" is basically just a rip-off of "You've Got a Friend in Me," "Before My Time" includes Scarlett Johansson singing in the smokiest of voices, and "Suddenly" may be the least memorable song in Les Miserables (plus some weren't too pleased that an original song was in the movie anyway). This one's going to Adele, and she's going to act all surprised and thank movie people for letting her be part of their world, and it's going to be in a British accent.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Score)
Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli)
Argo (Alexandre Desplat)
(X) Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)
(O) Lincoln (John Williams)
Skyfall (Thomas Newman)
I've listened to all of these scores in full since this nomination came out (and four of them before the nominations), and it's a toss up for me. First of all, some of the year's best scores got snubbed pretty hardcore, especially Cloud Atlas (you could throw in Beasts of the Southern Wild and The Dark Knight Rises, too, but they aren't as deserving). But if I HAD to pick a winner, I'd probably go with Life of Pi. Mychael Danna creates a pretty unique sound in this score, and he deserves some recognition. But I always have been and always will be a sucker for a good John Williams score, and his work for Lincoln matched the movie perfectly. If either win, I'll be happy, but look for Danna to get his first win here.
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchcock
(O) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
(X) Les Miserables
This one is a tough for me. The Hobbit definitely deserves this award (did you see the hairstyles of all those dwarves?), but it also wasn't a great movie. Remember what I said before: these voters haven't seen all of these movies. They vote for winners. I hope The Hobbit wins this award, but I really see Les Mis adding a statute to its tally.
Best Achievement in Costume Design
(X)(O) Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman
This category is the exception to the "vote for winners" rule. When in doubt in the costume category, go with the period drama. Always. Four of the winners in the last 6 years have been period piece movies (Marie Antoinette, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, The Duchess, and The Young Victoria). The only other two went to Alice in Wonderland (no period piece movies nominated) and The Artist (beating Jane Eyre, but isn't last year a wash anyway?). I could see Les Miserables possibly taking this one, but I have to play the odds here.
Best Achievement in Production Design
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
(X) Les Miserables
Life of Pi
(O) Lincoln
From 2000 to 2005, this award went to the same winner as Costume Design. But from then on, it went crazy, making this terribly unpredictable. Because of that, I'm not going to bet on Anna Karenina taking this one home. However, my dark horse for Costume Design is my lead bet for Production Design. Les Miserables had some wonderful sets, especially the opening shipyard and the final number. But if I was giving out the Oscars, I would have to go with Lincoln. From the dark lighting, dense tapestry, and even that paddle steamer where Lincoln met with the Confederate delegation, Lincoln had some amazing production design going for it. My head says Les Mis, but my heart thinks Lincoln.
Best Achievement in Editing
(X)(O) Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
The editing award normally goes to fast-paced movies (see: Bourne Ultimatum, The Hurt Locker, The Social Network, etc.), and it would be no surprise to see it go to Argo this year. The last 25 minutes of Argo were rivaled in suspense only by the last 25 minutes of Zero Dark Thirty. But what Zero Dark Thirty didn't have to do was juggle scenes from different parts of the globe in its finale. Argo jumps between Iran, Virginia, and Hollywood, all while keeping its expert pacing and tense feel. The funny thing is that both Argo and Zero Dark Thirty are edited by the same guy (William Goldenberg), so either way, he's probably getting an Oscar here. Just expect that Argo will get to count the Oscar as well.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
(X)(O) Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Before even considering what I think will win this award, I had already marked down my (O) next to Life of Pi. No film this year came anywhere near matching the beauty of Life of Pi. Claudio Miranda (a protege of David Fincher) took the challenge of filming what was thought to be unfilmable, and turned it into a masterpiece. Oh, and did I mention it was in 3D? That's pretty important, as it was far and away the best use of 3D that I have ever seen (and yes, I remember Avatar and Hugo). Mark it down, because this is one of the surefire bets of the night.
The Big Awards
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
(X) Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
(O) Silver Linings Playbook
I've told you before about how Silver Linings Playbook is my favorite movie, so it's no surprise that I think it should win this award. The writing was quick, witty, and inspired. But what have you heard so far in this blog? Winners win. Argo already took home the award for Best Adapted Screenplay from the Writer's Guild, so it's basically a lock to win here. Furthermore, this win could all but solidify Argo's Best Picture win (the only competitor in the Original Screenplay category is Zero Dark Thirty). Don't get me wrong, I agree that Argo is well written. I just really really liked Silver Linings Playbook.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Amour
(O) Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
(X) Zero Dark Thirty
Movie characters were meant to be written like Quentin Tarantino writes them. Conniving, sly, forthright, and humorously humorless. Tarantino has won this award before, but for a movie that had slightly less racism (Pulp Fiction). The last time he tackled a subject that toed the line this closely (Inglorious Basterds), he was nominated, but didn't win. Expect that to happen again here. Mark Boal's Zero Dark Thirty is an expert script that has the challenge of covering a ten-year span full of minute details. Not only does that take a lot of research, but it makes for a difficult character study when the character he's writing about is still undercover in the CIA. It may not be as well-written as Django, but Zero Dark Thirty is still worthy of this Oscar.
Best Performance by a Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (The Master)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
(X)(O) Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
With apologies to the other nominees, as soon as Anne Hathaway started singing I Dreamed a Dream, this race was over. Her legendary one shot, one take scene about 20 minutes into Les Miserables stole the film...almost to the extent that the rest could never recover. Though she's only on screen for maybe 15 minutes max, Anne is the clear winner here. Helen Hunt is probably the second most deserving actress with her confident role as a sex surrogate in The Sessions, but it just doesn't compare. Take it away, Anne. May this award be a second choice in your growing arsenal of weapons against self doubt.
Best Performance by a Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
(O) Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
(X) Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
This is the closest race of any on Oscar night. Christoph won the Golden Globe, SAG, and BAFTA, but Philip Seymour Hoffman won the Critics' Choice. Meanwhile, Tommy Lee Jones and Robert De Niro continue to be the odds on favorites at 13/5. I feel like Christoph will take the award here, but I think the fact that he won the same award two years ago hurts him rather than helps him. Of the other nominees, I think Tommy Lee Jones deserves it most, both for his performance as Thaddeus Stevens and for this face. Just be wary with whoever you end up picking because this award could pretty much go to four of the five nominees without me being upset or surprised.
Best Performance by an Actress
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
(X)(O) Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
The fact that this battle came down to Jessica v. Jennifer seems unfair to the other actresses. All five of these performances were unbelievable, and all for different reasons. However, it's probably no surprise that my pick for who should and will win is Jennifer Lawrence. Jennifer Lawrence is the best. See here. And here. And neither of those have anything to do with her tornado of a performance in Silver Linings Playbook. While all five of these nominees showed incredible strength in their performances, none showed the emotional range of Lawrence. She wins my heart, and hopefully the Oscar.
Best Performance by an Actor
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
(X)(O) Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
I really feel bad for any actor that is nominated in the same year as Daniel Day-Lewis. It just isn't fair. Bradley Cooper, Hugh Jackman, Joaquin Phoenix, AND Denzel Washington all gave the best performances of their career, and it's not going to matter one bit. Day-Lewis is just too good. Think of how many movies you talk about where you use the character's name, not the actor's. Not too many, right? Lincoln is that rare movie, where the decisions made in the film are made by Abraham Lincoln, not Daniel Day-Lewis. And for a star of his caliber to disappear into a role like that...that's just something you hardly ever see.
Best Director
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
(X) Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
If you follow movies, you know about the controversy surrounding this award. Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck may be two of the biggest directing snubs of all time, and they both happened in the same year. Therefore, by default, we are left with Steven Spielberg winning this award. Lincoln was great, but think of it in the pantheon of Spielberg movies. What would it rank, like 10th at best? And that's being EXTREMELY generous. Spielberg is still my favorite director, but he's lost Oscars for way better movies than this. I'm not even gonna put a Should Win mark on this award because the two directors that should win weren't even nominated.
Best Picture
Amour
(X) Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
(O) Silver Linings Playbook
(O) Zero Dark Thirty
For those of you who just scrolled down to this award (I know you did...it's ok), you probably could have seen this coming. I like Argo a lot. But I also like Silver Linings Playbook (obviously) and Zero Dark Thirty. I've seen all three movies at least twice, and I still can't place one movie solidly above the others. If any of these three movies win, it's a successful Oscar night. None of my musings matter, though, because it's going to be Argo. It's won every award leading up to this night. Everyone in Hollywood wants to see the Ben Affleck Redemption Train complete its journey. And you know what? I think I want to see it too. I still don't think Argo is a better movie than the other two films I've mentioned here. But I remember the old Ben Affleck--the one who was amazing in Good Will Hunting--and it's good to have him back. So here's to you, Ben! And to the other movies? I think Lester Siegel said it best...
Do you agree with my picks? Disagree and think you can beat me at the Oscar game? Feel free to let me know what you think. Thanks for reading!
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