It's once again the favorite time of year for every movie lover! It's Oscar Weekend!
Wait...before we start...it is your favorite time of year, right? I mean, I know not everyone is as off-the-walls enthusiastic about the Academy Awards as I am. But even if you don't like watching rich people hand each other statues, there's plenty of reasons for everyone to watch the Oscars. The best explanation I've ever heard for loving the Oscars is this: without the Oscars, there wouldn't be any good movies. Think about it: what would motivate anyone in Hollywood to produce good art if not for the possibility of being acknowledged by their peers and the little naked gold statues they could put on their mantle? Without the Oscars, we'd get 12 months of terrible rom coms, action movies that aren't thought out past the explosion scenes, and animated movies with no imagination. So I guess what I'm saying is this: it doesn't matter that you don't love awards shows. What matters is that the people up for those awards DO love them, and will make great movies because of them. And for that, we should all be thankful that the Oscars rolls out the red carpet every year.
But enough preaching. On to the awards! As I said in my prediction blog last year, what you will read below is purely speculation. If you are responsible for winning an Oscar pool this weekend because of this blog, feel free to throw all of the thanks my way. But if you lose, please don't blame me. This year may be one of the most difficult years to predict ever, which is a testament to just how many good movies there were. Remember last year when the Best Picture winner (Argo) only took home three awards the whole night? No? Well...just...ok? Take my word for it (Best Picture, Best Editing, and Best Adapted Screenplay). I'm gonna guess a similar thing will happen this year (in fact, I could see the Best Picture winner this year possibly winning only two awards). All of this is to say that the Oscars are a crapshoot. Essentially, I'm attempting to predict what a mix of actors, directors, writers, and nerdy special effects guys, all either old or young, male or female, etc., have decided is the best in every category. Some of these are going to be wrong.
With that said, in each category I will predict what I think WILL win while also marking what I think SHOULD win. DO NOT READ ANYTHING INTO THE "SHOULD" WIN CATEGORY EXCEPT THAT I ENJOYED IT!! Some of these will have potential dark horse candidates that I will explain if you want to have an idea of another choice to possibly make, while others are fairly set in stone (for example, Gravity is currently going off at -10000 odds to win Best Cinematography. I'm not even sure how to quantify that). Finally, in some of these categories I haven't seen all of the nominees (I'm not Superman, guys), so I will be going off what the experts are saying. Like last year, I've broken this up into minor awards, technical awards, and big awards so you can just jump to whatever you like. You ready to do this? I'm tired of making up things to write so LET'S GO!!!
X = Will Win
O = Should Win
Minor Awards (Also known as lots of movies no one has seen...including me)
Best Short Film (Live Action)
That Wasn't Me
Just Before Losing Everything
Helium
Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?
(X) The Voorman Problem
Just like last year, we're starting off hot with exactly zero of the nominees seen in this category. I know that certain theaters have nights where they show all these shorts at once and stuff, but with school and everything, that's just not happening. The Voorman Problem is going off at 10/11 odds to win this thing. In case you care, the movie is about a doctor who is called in to examine a prisoner named Mr. Voorman who believes that he is a god. Is the guy insane, meaning he can be sent to an asylum? Or is he just faking it. Sounds interesting to me. Not interesting enough to go out and find today before the Oscars, but interesting nonetheless. Let's move on.
Best Short Film (Animated)
Feral
(X) Get a Horse!
Mr Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom
If you've seen the movie Frozen, then you've seen one of these nominees! Congratulations! You've probably also seen the winner of this category, so why even watch the rest? I promise I won't sound this lazy when it gets to the big awards. Anyway, Get a Horse!, like it's feature film counterpart, seems like a lock to win here. It's old timey and nostalgic (Mickey and Minnie!!), and it's Disney. Oh, and if you're wondering about the absence of the Should Win marks, I'm not making those until there's a category where I've seen multiple nominees.
Best Documentary (Short Subject)
Cavedigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
(X) The Lady In Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Apparently, this one is pretty clear cut. The Lady in Number 6 is going off at 1/10 odds and has been picked by almost every expert. So there you go. The point of the documentary appears to be in the title, so I have nothing more to say about that.
Best Documentary (Feature)
(O) The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
(X) 20 Feet from Stardom
Finally! A category where I can actually provide some insight! Earlier this week, I realized that every Oscar nominated documentary with the exception of one was put up on Netflix. But it's a shame to report that the one movie that wasn't added was the movie that is likely going to win this award. 20 Feet from Stardom is a crowd-pleasing look at backup singers for popular bands and artists, finally giving these gifted voices the attention that they deserve. It's got all the elements of a good documentary: an underdog story, previously overlooked people, and music that will emotionally manipulate the hell out of any voter. That being said, I still think The Act of Killing should win this award. It's about a far more important subject: the Indonesian genocide in 1965-66 that ended with 2.5 million people dead, yet the killers are still in control, have never been tried for any human rights violations, and are actually proud enough about what they did to reenact the killings to the documentarians filming them. Documentary awards should go to the most important, well-told documentaries, but I just don't think enough voters are going to watch a subtitled movie about Indonesia when they can see Bruce Springsteen, Mick Jagger, and Sting in the other one.
Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Missing Picture
The Hunt
(X) The Great Beauty
Omar
Aaaannnddd, we're back to categories where I've seen nothing. That was short lived. If you're even reading the paragraphs for these categories, I'll be surprised. Seriously, comment "See more movies" on my Facebook post for this blog if you're reading this. I'm putting the over/under at .5 comments or likes of the first comment. Oh, yea, and Great Beauty is a likely lock for this one. Look out for The Hunt, though. It's been on Netflix for a couple months (meaning it could be on voters' minds) and has definite dark horse potential. Again, no Should Win mark for this one because I honestly don't know what should win.
Best Animated Feature Film
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
(X) Frozen
(O) The Wind Rises
Is there a more sure thing tonight than Frozen winning this award? Disney is looking to have a pretty decent little Oscar night, what with this win and likely a short film and Best Song win to boot. But should Frozen win? It's a charming movie, to be sure. However, The Wind Rises is the final film ever for legendary animated film director Hayao Miyazaki (Spirited Away, Princess Mononoke, Howl's Moving Castle). Shouldn't that deserve some recognition one last time? Voters will know this, but I'm not sure it's enough to unseat Frozen. I'll let it go and pick the Disney movie.
Technical Awards (I've seen these films!)
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
(X)(O) Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness
Now we're getting into the fun stuff! And with the first technical award of the night comes the first of likely many awards for Alfonso Cuaron's space thriller. Like the force of gravity itself, not many things are going to be able to overcome this movie on Oscar night. Gravity was made for technical dominance, and in this category, the 3D filming and its overwhelming special effects (be it the beauty or scariness of space depending on the part of the movie) will be more than enough to give it the award. The other four movies here aren't even in the same class.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
All Is Lost
(O) Captain Phillips
(X) Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor
Last year, I gave a little blurb about what the difference is between sound editing and sound mixing (the next category), and I'm gonna give myself a little pat on the back and give that same blurb again. For those who don't know the difference, sound editing is the ability to create sounds, such as a dragon's fiery breath or the explosion of space debris. As with Visual Effects, Gravity is the likely winner here. The irony, though, is that in space there is no sound, a fact the movie touts in its opening title screen. For that reason alone, I feel like Gravity shouldn't get this win. Instead, I think a win for Captain Phillips would be much more deserved (constant sounds of open water, large ships, and gunshots are not easy to believably create), and would also be in line with recent winners like Skyfall. But, unfortunately, I only have a blog, not a vote.
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
(X)(O) Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Captain Phillips
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
Another technical award, another win for Gravity. Ho hum. As for the difference between this category and the last one, Sound Mixing is the ability to take all of the recorded sounds, put them in a mixing board, and find the correct balance between music, dialogue, and audio effects. Here is where I think Gravity is far more deserving. The majority of the tension in Gravity is built between the pulsating score and the simultaneously pulsating breathing of Sandra Bullock. The dialogue between the astronauts, NASA, and a random Chinese guy and his dog all had to be expertly mixed to be clear, but not unbelievably so. Oh, and those space explosions--specifically the ones that occur when Sandra Bullock is in the interior of various satellites and the audience can hear--are terrifyingly real. The only chance of an upset here could be Inside Llewyn Davis.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
Happy (Despicable Me 2)
(X)(O) Let It Go (Frozen)
Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
The Moon Song (Her)
I have to be honest: I'm actually really looking forward to this award. In any other year, all four of these songs would be a winner (there were five nominees, but one was dropped due to some illegal campaigning). "Happy" is a bouncy Pharrell Williams track, and if you've listened to music at all this last year, you know that Pharrell Williams is on fire right now (a win tonight would give him the second part of an EGOT in the last month). Meanwhile, The Moon Song is a perfectly light, airy tune that fit its movie to a "T" (credit goes to Karen O for the actual song, but Scarlett Johansson's version from the movie is better). As for the two main contenders, it's Disney vs. U2. That's extremely high stakes for a Best Original Song category. However, as good as U2's track is, I don't think it stands a chance against Frozen. Let It Go has already become an iconic Disney song, and the movie has only been out for two months. It's going to win tonight.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Score)
The Book Thief (John Williams)
(X)(O) Gravity (Steven Price)
Her (Arcade Fire)
Saving Mr. Banks (Thomas Newman)
Philomena (Alexandre Desplat)
While writing this blog (and a few other law school assignments), I've listened to all five of these scores in full. They are all exemplary scores, but none of them are super memorable. However, you probably could have guessed the winner without even hearing the music. Steven Price's work for Gravity is the best of the bunch, involving straining bass for the majority of the movie, mixed with light moments and ending with a rally cry of a theme song that includes some great voice work. If there's a dark horse, I would say it's Her. Arcade Fire did a great job creating the melancholy sound that Joaquin Phoenix literally asks for at the start of the film, but it's not going to be enough to beat out the night's big winner.
Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
(X)(O) Dallas Buyer's Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger
Now we're on to the most random category of the night. I don't think even the producers of Bad Grandpa could have predicted that they would be nominated for an Oscar for their makeup work on Johnny Knoxville. While I'm preferential to the work that has to go into doing makeup on a war film, specifically all of the continuity that must be kept with blood, scars, etc., I think Dallas Buyer's Club should and will win this one. A recent report that the movie did all of it's makeup on a $250 budget should only help it win, as they somehow were able to create the ghastly sick look of Ron Woodruff and Co. at such a shoestring cost. One nominee that I wish were here, though, is American Hustle. Any movie that has Christian Bale in a combover, Bradley Cooper in jheri curls, and Jennifer Lawrence in a gigantic blonde whig deserves to be nominated. Can I give a Should Win mark to a non-nominee?
Best Achievement in Costume Design
(O) American Hustle
(X) The Great Gatsby
12 Years a Slave
The Grandmaster
The Invisible Woman
I said it last year, and I'll say it again. Never bet against a period piece in the costume category. This is the one category where it doesn't matter what the other award prospects are for a film. People like showy costumes, and period pieces deliver them more than any other. The period piece of note this year is The Great Gatsby, which had a lot of fun with bouncy flapper dresses and endless summer suits. However, I'm giving my Should Win to American Hustle, as it allowed the audience to see A-list actors in showy costumes that we may never see again. Five years from now, what will you remember more? Amy Adams' deeeeeeep V-neck dresses and Jeremy Renner's suede blue suit or Carey Mulligan's frilly flapper outfits and Leo in a pinstripe (because Leo's never been in a suit in any movie before...)? I know my answer.
Best Achievement in Production Design
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
(X) The Great Gatsby
(O) Her
I've always felt the production design award should go to the movie that immerses you the most in the world of the film. That being said, I feel like that production has to be tangible and real. So for the first time in a technical category, I think we can disregard Gravity, which was almost completely made in front of green screens and on a computer. However, that leaves us with four other extremely deserving nominees. I personally think Her should win this award because of how completely it built its near-futuristic world, from the high-waisted hipster jeans to the endless use of Apple-type computer products. Unfortunately, production design awards tend to follow the trend of costume design, going to the more elaborate sets rather than the most believable. For that reason, I think The Great Gatsby is going to be a double winner this year, even though I don't really think it deserves either award.
Best Achievement in Editing
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
(X) Gravity
(O) Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
This award is a difficult one for me because editing and cinematography so often go hand-in-hand. If that's the case this year, Gravity is a sure winner. But the reason I don't really agree it should win is because the greatness of Gravity's cinematography comes from its long, extended shots, not its quick, fast-paced edits. If the editing award went to what actually was the most difficult film to edit, I would give the award to Captain Phillips. This is not unprecedented, either, as Paul Greengrass has done this before (creating a winner with The Bourne Ultimatum and a nominee with United 93). I just think the momentum for Gravity is going to be too strong, and it'll walk away with yet another technical win.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
(X)(O) Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners
The Grandmaster
Remember that line I gave earlier about Gravity's chances to win in this category? This award is the most sure thing of the entire evening. Emmanuel Lubezki's work was stellar, starting with that 12-minute opening shot that dizzied audiences everywhere and continuing with scene after scene of tension, explosions, and finally extreme relief (all in eye-popping 3D!!). The story of Gravity could not have been told without such brilliant camerawork. If there was one other nominee that I wish was at least in the running, it would be The Wolf of Wall Street, but does it really matter? Gravity is far and away the winner in this category.
The Big Awards!!! Finally!!!
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
(X)(O) 12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Philomena
I said at the start of this blog that 12 Years a Slave may only win two awards the whole night, and I think this is the first of them. I haven't read the devastating memoir of Solomon Northup, but I've heard that this adaptation may have even been kinder to the audience than it could have been (which is saying quite a lot). 12 Years a Slave has a perfect mix of great speeches, difficult scenarios, and strong characters, all of which makes it sound more like a production than it really ends up being. The movie was designed to not feel fake at all, and in all the behind the scenes writing and string-pulling, they did made it perfect.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
(X) American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
(O) Her
Nebraska
Dallas Buyers Club
This category is a two-horse race between two movies that are not going to walk away with nearly as many awards as they probably deserve: American Hustle and Her. So which movie will get the benefit of putting a Best Screenplay win on its DVD box? I really, really want it to be Her, but I think American Hustle is going to barely edge it out. This may be slightly unfair, as it seems like so much of American Hustle is just the incredible actors doing whatever they please and letting the plot go from there (as is the case with most David O. Russell films). Meanwhile, Her is an extremely unique movie with important insights into relationships and general humanity. I think writing Her took far more talent than writing American Hustle, but in the end, I think voters are going to feel the need to vote for American Hustle somewhere, and that's going to happen here.
Best Performance by a Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
(X)(O) Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
I can't believe I'm saying this, but I am so happy that Jennifer Lawrence is not going to win this award. That is not meant to be an insult to Lawrence's performance at all, which was explosive and scene-stealing every time she was on the screen. But Lupita Nyong'o has deserved this award since September, and I finally think the award voters are realizing this. Lawrence is a Hollywood darling, a comedy wrapped in beauty, and my dream girl, all of which makes her the perfect person to let loose on the awards circuit. On the other hand, Nyong'o has hardly said a word, letting her portrayal of Patsey do the real work. I love Lawrence with all my heart, but she was out-acted this year. I'm pulling for Nyong'o here more than any other nominee in any category, and as of last week, I finally believe she can do it. Oh, and if you're keeping track of my tally for 12 Years a slave, that gives it two...
Best Performance by a Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
(X)(O) Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
I think this is the most stacked of all the acting categories this year, slightly edging out Best Actor. I mean, Jonah Hill gave the best performance of his career, and he's not even close to winning this because everyone else was so perfect. Cooper gave his funniest performance ever, Abdi got to utter the line of the year ("I am the captain now"), and Fassbender actually acted with such cruel brutality that he fainted on set. But none of them are anywhere near the performance given by Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club. If you told me that they had swapped in a different actor/actress to play Rayon and just given credit to Leto, I would totally believe you. Such is the depth to which Leto disappears into his character. Though Rayon herself may be underutilized in the script, Leto does everything he can and more.
Best Performance by an Actress
(O) Amy Adams (American Hustle)
(X) Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Actresses are always shocked when they beat out the legendary Meryl Streep for an award, but Cate Blanchett may be the second greatest actress alive (behind Ms. Streep, of course) and deserves recognition for it. It's hard to believe that someone that can change so much for every role (she's previously played an elf, Bob Dylan, Queen Elizabeth, a Russian spy, and Katherine Hepburn) has only won one Oscar, so she's due for a second. To be honest, I have not seen Blue Jasmine (and of the others I have seen, I think Amy Adams was the best, giving it an honorary Should Win mark), which makes this the only major category where I haven't seen the eventual winner. But I'm gonna believe the hype, and you should too.
Best Performance by an Actor
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
(X)(O) Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Regardless of the names on this list of nominees, this category is actually not as close as you may have been led to believe. Don't buy into Leo's previous award season failures...that's not going to be on voters' minds. And though for the longest time I was singing the praises of Chiwetel Ejiofor, even his performance can't touch what Matthew McConaughey did in Dallas Buyer's Club. If you've seen the movie (or even the trailers), you know that McConaughey lost a ton of weight (47 pounds, to be exact) to portray AIDS patient Ron Woodruff. And not only did he lose those 40 pounds, but he acted the hell out of that role. Furthermore, McConaughey has done great work all around this year, setting the tone in the first 10 minutes for Wolf of Wall Street, portraying a homeless wanderer in Mudd, and now being seen on your premium cable channels in True Detective. I think all of that is going to weigh on the voters' minds a lot more than some awards season slump.
Best Director
(X)(O) Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
The directing category this year read more like a Hall of Fame wall than a nominee list, making this one an interesting category to watch. Most people believe that this is where Gravity gets its final award of the night, giving us a Best Director/Best Picture split for the second year in a row (insert Ben Affleck reference here). And that's fine with me. I've always felt that epics like Gravity are a lot harder to direct than smaller scale pictures like Nebraska or 12 Years a Slave. Sometimes the Academy has agreed with me, but other times it has not (see most notably, James Cameron and Avatar losing to Kathryn Bigelow and The Hurt Locker). Here, however, the voters are going to get it right. If my predictions are correct, that's going to give Gravity seven awards, which is a fairly hefty number. Unfortunately, this is going to seem like only a consolation prize...
BEST PICTURE
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
(X)(O) 12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
All along I've mentioned that 12 Years a Slave may only get two awards tonight, and that could very well be true. But it's not going to be this category that knocks it down from a potential three. 12 Years a Slave has been the frontrunner for Best Picture since it was first declared a masterpiece by critics in September. Gravity has been hot on its heels ever since (it was declared a masterpiece exactly one day later), but has never been able to quite catch up. As you might have seen on TV the last few weeks, the Oscars have been running promos saying that this is the most tightly contested race in years. But even tightly contested races end up with a clear winner, and this year, that winner is going to be 12 Years a Slave.
So there you have it! Go and fill out your brackets exactly like this, and you'll be almost guaranteed to win your Oscar pool. Or, you know, don't fill it out like this and try to prove me wrong. Either way, I'm looking forward to a fun night. I hope you are too.
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